— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
98¢
aifs
94¢
icon
93¢
eps
92¢
wn2
91¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
47¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F26¢
86–87°F18¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape