daily prop · Tucson, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Tucson runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Thu Oct 22

2¢

american +6189 · decimal 62.89

on the tape

92°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 92°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		17¢
hres		13¢
icon		4¢
wn2		4¢
aifs		2¢
nbm		1¢
ndfd		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

76–77°F1¢

78–79°F5¢

80–81°F14¢

82–83°F24¢

84–85°F26¢

86–87°F18¢

88–89°F8¢

90–91°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE92 · opened 2026-10-15T20:06:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape