— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
86¢
wn2
78¢
icon
75¢
hres
59¢
aifs
56¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F9¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape