— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
48¢
nbm
46¢
eps
40¢
wn2
39¢
icon
36¢
hres
34¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F7¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F19¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F3¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape