— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
33¢
hres
33¢
wn2
23¢
eps
9¢
nbm
3¢
icon
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F17¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F9¢
90–91°F5¢
92–93°F2¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261027-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape