AIFS Single
AIFS single forecast with an estimated error distribution. This feed is not AIFS ENS.
HISTORICAL SCOUTING
RECONSTRUCTEDAccuracy by horizon
| LEAD | BRIER ↓ | MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR | COMMON CASES | LAST 30 DAYS · BRIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.0371 | 3.51°F | 5,433 | 0.0312 · n=1,417 |
| D3 | 0.0371 | 3.80°F | 4,062 | 0.0328 · n=1,368 |
| D5 | 0.0394 | 4.14°F | 3,792 | 0.0367 · n=1,319 |
Model version is not supplied by the current feed. These research results span the available archive and are not a version-specific league record.
ON THE BOARD
1879 open forecasts
| STATION / PROP | DATE | CONSENSUS | AIFS | EPS | WN2 | HRES | ICON | GAP | MOVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BostonHigh ≥ 59°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 57% | 70% | 11% | 99% | 19% | 54% | 87pt | +0pt |
| BoiseHigh ≥ 70°F KBOI | Mon Oct 19 | 33% | 4% | 64% | 16% | 88% | 28% | 84pt | +0pt |
| BostonHigh ≥ 60°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 49% | 57% | 7% | 90% | 16% | 78% | 83pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 73°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 69% | 80% | >99% | 68% | 61% | 17% | 83pt | +0pt |
| AustinHigh ≥ 83°F KAUS | Mon Oct 19 | 22% | 4% | 66% | 2% | 27% | 84% | 82pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 75°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 63% | 61% | 95% | 49% | 16% | 85% | 79pt | +0pt |
| TucsonHigh ≥ 85°F KTUS | Mon Oct 19 | 66% | 83% | 66% | 80% | 70% | 7% | 76pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 79°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 46% | 49% | 83% | 23% | 47% | 8% | 74pt | +0pt |
| IndianapolisHigh ≥ 68°F KIND | Mon Oct 19 | 52% | 83% | 39% | 74% | 31% | 10% | 72pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 87°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 53% | 84% | 52% | 42% | 72% | 13% | 72pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 86°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 65% | 81% | 66% | 61% | 86% | 16% | 71pt | -1pt |
| BuffaloHigh ≥ 66°F KBUF | Mon Oct 19 | 45% | 79% | 17% | 86% | 21% | 32% | 69pt | +0pt |
| Oklahoma CityHigh ≥ 71°F KOKC | Mon Oct 19 | 53% | 78% | 52% | 75% | 34% | 9% | 68pt | +0pt |
| DallasHigh ≥ 84°F KDFW | Mon Oct 19 | 23% | 11% | 37% | 1% | 38% | 70% | 68pt | +0pt |
| DallasHigh ≥ 75°F KDFW | Mon Oct 19 | 73% | 64% | 99% | 31% | 69% | 58% | 68pt | +0pt |
| San FranciscoHigh ≥ 64°F KSFO | Mon Oct 19 | 59% | 52% | 93% | 54% | 47% | 25% | 68pt | +0pt |
| San FranciscoHigh ≤ 63°F KSFO | Mon Oct 19 | 41% | 48% | 7% | 46% | 53% | 75% | 68pt | +0pt |
| PittsburghHigh ≥ 63°F KPIT | Mon Oct 19 | 66% | 68% | 46% | 89% | 77% | 21% | 68pt | +0pt |
| BostonHigh ≥ 57°F KBOS | Mon Oct 19 | 64% | 87% | 27% | 95% | 30% | 35% | 68pt | +0pt |
| Oklahoma CityHigh ≥ 69°F KOKC | Mon Oct 19 | 67% | 90% | 72% | 82% | 55% | 22% | 68pt | +0pt |
| DetroitHigh ≥ 66°F KDTW | Mon Oct 19 | 48% | 67% | 44% | 86% | 47% | 19% | 67pt | -2pt |
| OrlandoHigh ≥ 80°F KMCO | Mon Oct 19 | 60% | 76% | 72% | 78% | 54% | 11% | 67pt | +0pt |
| PittsburghHigh ≥ 64°F KPIT | Mon Oct 19 | 73% | 88% | 60% | 97% | 70% | 30% | 67pt | +0pt |
| OrlandoHigh ≤ 77°F KMCO | Mon Oct 19 | 13% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 26% | 74% | 67pt | +0pt |
| BuffaloHigh ≥ 64°F KBUF | Mon Oct 19 | 55% | 92% | 44% | 97% | 32% | 30% | 67pt | +0pt |
| PhiladelphiaHigh ≥ 66°F KPHL | Mon Oct 19 | 62% | 79% | 42% | 84% | 47% | 18% | 66pt | +0pt |
| PhoenixHigh ≥ 88°F KPHX | Mon Oct 19 | 67% | 73% | 74% | 76% | 74% | 10% | 66pt | +0pt |
| NewarkHigh ≥ 66°F KEWR | Mon Oct 19 | 43% | 67% | 36% | 80% | 38% | 14% | 66pt | +0pt |
| DetroitHigh ≥ 64°F KDTW | Mon Oct 19 | 75% | 90% | 63% | 98% | 62% | 33% | 65pt | +0pt |
| SacramentoHigh ≥ 71°F KSMF | Mon Oct 19 | 86% | 91% | >99% | 87% | 79% | 35% | 65pt | +0pt |
Showing 30 forecasts, ordered by date and disagreement.