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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KATL · High ≥ 83°F

Atlanta, GA · 20260919 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 14 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 19 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 20 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 27 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KATL ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
AIFS
99%
HRES
98%
WN2
95%
ICON
80%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS99%Sep 13 · 18:00 UTCSep 14 · 01:27 UTCSep 14 · 01:27 UTC
EPS>99%Sep 13 · 00:00 UTCSep 13 · 14:58 UTCSep 13 · 14:58 UTC
HRES98%Sep 13 · 12:00 UTCSep 13 · 23:09 UTCSep 13 · 23:09 UTC
ICON80%Sep 13 · 00:00 UTCSep 13 · 13:56 UTCSep 13 · 13:56 UTC
WN295%Sep 13 · 12:00 UTCSep 13 · 22:53 UTCSep 13 · 22:53 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON10.894950.890.11+0.11 / -0.11
EPSWN230.974152.920.08+0.08 / -0.08

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 92°F · Sep 23 · 05:36 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 20 · 12:23 UTC92°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KATL:20260919:D5