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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KATL · High ≥ 80°F

Atlanta, GA · 20260928 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 27 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 28 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 29 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 06 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KATL ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
93%
HRES
87%
AIFS
79%
ICON
51%
WN2
13%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS79%Sep 26 · 18:00 UTCSep 27 · 01:23 UTCSep 27 · 01:23 UTC
EPS93%Sep 26 · 00:00 UTCSep 26 · 15:14 UTCSep 26 · 15:14 UTC
HRES87%Sep 26 · 12:00 UTCSep 26 · 19:24 UTCSep 26 · 19:24 UTC
ICON51%Sep 27 · 00:00 UTCSep 27 · 04:31 UTCSep 27 · 04:31 UTC
WN213%Sep 26 · 12:00 UTCSep 26 · 23:03 UTCSep 26 · 23:03 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON240.6516515.648.36+8.36 / -8.36
EPSWN2200.5286010.579.43+9.43 / -9.43

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 80°F · Oct 02 · 06:03 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 29 · 09:32 UTC80°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KATL:20260928:D1