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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KATL · High ≥ 78°F

Atlanta, GA · 20261003 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 28 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 03 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 11 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KATL ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
98%
AIFS
93%
HRES
83%
ICON
67%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS93%Sep 27 · 18:00 UTCSep 28 · 01:22 UTCSep 28 · 01:22 UTC
EPS>99%Sep 27 · 00:00 UTCSep 27 · 11:02 UTCSep 27 · 11:02 UTC
HRES83%Sep 27 · 12:00 UTCSep 27 · 19:23 UTCSep 27 · 19:23 UTC
ICON67%Sep 28 · 00:00 UTCSep 28 · 04:30 UTCSep 28 · 04:30 UTC
WN298%Sep 27 · 12:00 UTCSep 27 · 23:01 UTCSep 27 · 23:01 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2AIFS250.9556023.891.11+1.11 / -1.11
EPSHRES150.9156013.731.27+1.27 / -1.27

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 86°F · Oct 07 · 05:26 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 04 · 09:45 UTC86°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KATL:20261003:D5