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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KATL · High ≥ 78°F

Atlanta, GA · 20261004 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 29 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 05 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 12 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KATL ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
EPS
87%
AIFS
81%
ICON
58%
HRES
39%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS81%Sep 28 · 18:00 UTCSep 29 · 01:23 UTCSep 29 · 01:23 UTC
EPS87%Sep 28 · 00:00 UTCSep 28 · 15:13 UTCSep 28 · 15:13 UTC
HRES39%Sep 28 · 12:00 UTCSep 28 · 19:23 UTCSep 28 · 19:23 UTC
ICON58%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 04:33 UTCSep 29 · 04:33 UTC
WN295%Sep 28 · 12:00 UTCSep 28 · 23:02 UTCSep 28 · 23:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON260.6943018.057.95+7.95 / -7.95
WN2EPS20.908851.820.18+0.18 / -0.18

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 78°F · Oct 08 · 05:41 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 05 · 10:03 UTC78°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KATL:20261004:D5