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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 75°F

Boston, MA · 20260910 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 09 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 10 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 11 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 18 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
>99%
ICON
99%
HRES
96%
EPS
94%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS>99%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 01:29 UTCSep 09 · 01:29 UTC
EPS94%Sep 08 · 00:00 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTC
HRES96%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTC
ICON99%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTC
WN2>99%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 22:57 UTCSep 08 · 22:57 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICONEPS250.9622024.050.94+0.94 / -0.94
WN2HRES250.9776024.440.56+0.56 / -0.56

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 87°F · Sep 14 · 05:02 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 11 · 09:25 UTC87°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20260910:D1