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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 74°F

Boston, MA · 20260914 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 13 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 14 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 15 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 22 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
91%
AIFS
77%
EPS
46%
HRES
40%
ICON
20%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS77%Sep 12 · 18:00 UTCSep 13 · 01:37 UTCSep 13 · 01:37 UTC
EPS46%Sep 12 · 00:00 UTCSep 12 · 15:06 UTCSep 12 · 15:06 UTC
HRES40%Sep 12 · 12:00 UTCSep 12 · 22:32 UTCSep 12 · 22:32 UTC
ICON20%Sep 12 · 12:00 UTCSep 12 · 19:27 UTCSep 12 · 19:27 UTC
WN291%Sep 12 · 12:00 UTCSep 12 · 23:02 UTCSep 12 · 23:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES570.5811533.1323.87+23.87 / -23.87
WN2ICON390.5516521.5117.49+17.49 / -17.49

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 74°F · Sep 18 · 05:43 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 15 · 09:45 UTC74°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20260914:D1