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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 74°F

Boston, MA · 20260915 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 10 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 15 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 16 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 23 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
67%
HRES
62%
WN2
40%
AIFS
32%
ICON
30%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS32%Sep 09 · 18:00 UTCSep 10 · 01:29 UTCSep 10 · 01:29 UTC
EPS67%Sep 09 · 12:00 UTCSep 10 · 01:59 UTCSep 10 · 01:59 UTC
HRES62%Sep 09 · 12:00 UTCSep 09 · 19:21 UTCSep 09 · 19:21 UTC
ICON30%Sep 10 · 00:00 UTCSep 10 · 04:32 UTCSep 10 · 04:32 UTC
WN240%Sep 09 · 12:00 UTCSep 09 · 22:55 UTCSep 09 · 22:55 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
HRESAIFS620.4695029.1132.89-29.11 / +29.11
WN2ICON500.3513517.5732.43-17.57 / +17.57

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 66°F · Sep 19 · 05:25 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 16 · 09:26 UTC66°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20260915:D5