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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 68°F

Boston, MA · 20261001 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 26 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 01 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 02 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 09 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
>99%
ICON
95%
EPS
88%
HRES
79%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS>99%Sep 25 · 18:00 UTCSep 26 · 01:25 UTCSep 26 · 01:25 UTC
EPS88%Sep 25 · 00:00 UTCSep 25 · 15:17 UTCSep 25 · 15:17 UTC
HRES79%Sep 25 · 12:00 UTCSep 25 · 19:27 UTCSep 25 · 19:27 UTC
ICON95%Sep 26 · 00:00 UTCSep 26 · 04:33 UTCSep 26 · 04:33 UTC
WN2>99%Sep 25 · 12:00 UTCSep 25 · 23:05 UTCSep 25 · 23:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICONEPS140.9144512.801.20+1.20 / -1.20
WN2HRES370.8919533.004.00+4.00 / -4.00

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 79°F · Oct 05 · 05:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 02 · 09:11 UTC79°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20261001:D5