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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 67°F

Boston, MA · 20261003 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 30 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 03 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 11 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
95%
WN2
94%
ICON
88%
AIFS
84%
HRES
52%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS84%Sep 29 · 18:00 UTCSep 30 · 01:32 UTCSep 30 · 01:32 UTC
EPS95%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 15:19 UTCSep 29 · 15:19 UTC
HRES52%Sep 29 · 12:00 UTCSep 29 · 19:24 UTCSep 29 · 19:24 UTC
ICON88%Sep 30 · 00:00 UTCSep 30 · 04:26 UTCSep 30 · 04:26 UTC
WN294%Sep 29 · 18:00 UTCSep 30 · 04:58 UTCSep 30 · 04:58 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSICON210.9128019.171.83+1.83 / -1.83
WN2HRES130.727309.453.55+3.55 / -3.55

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 67°F · Oct 07 · 05:26 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 04 · 09:45 UTC67°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20261003:D3