SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 66°F

Boston, MA · 20261006 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Oct 03 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 06 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 07 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 14 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

34%

26%

24%

18%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	34%	Oct 02 · 18:00 UTC	Oct 03 · 01:25 UTC	Oct 03 · 01:25 UTC
EPS	24%	Oct 02 · 00:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 15:09 UTC	Oct 02 · 15:09 UTC
HRES	18%	Oct 02 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 22:32 UTC	Oct 02 · 22:32 UTC
ICON	26%	Oct 02 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 16:59 UTC	Oct 02 · 16:59 UTC
WN2	55%	Oct 02 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 23:03 UTC	Oct 02 · 23:03 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFS	EPS	25	0.29180	7.29	17.70	-7.29 / +7.29
ICON	HRES	25	0.21750	5.44	19.56	-5.44 / +5.44

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 63°F · Oct 10 · 05:57 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 07 · 09:41 UTC	63°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20261006:D3