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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KBOS · High ≥ 65°F

Boston, MA · 20261007 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 06 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 07 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 08 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 15 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KBOS ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
93%
AIFS
83%
ICON
65%
HRES
43%
EPS
26%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS83%Oct 05 · 18:00 UTCOct 06 · 01:28 UTCOct 06 · 01:28 UTC
EPS26%Oct 05 · 00:00 UTCOct 05 · 15:12 UTCOct 05 · 15:12 UTC
HRES43%Oct 05 · 00:00 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTC
ICON65%Oct 05 · 12:00 UTCOct 05 · 23:06 UTCOct 05 · 23:06 UTC
WN293%Oct 05 · 12:00 UTCOct 05 · 23:06 UTCOct 05 · 23:06 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON450.7405533.3211.68+11.68 / -11.68
WN2EPS560.5909533.0922.91+22.91 / -22.91

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 66°F · Oct 11 · 05:06 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 08 · 09:52 UTC66°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KBOS:20261007:D1