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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDEN · High ≥ 79°F

Denver, CO · 20260916 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 15 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 16 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 17 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 24 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDEN ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
98%
EPS
95%
ICON
89%
WN2
82%
AIFS
49%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS49%Sep 14 · 18:00 UTCSep 15 · 01:32 UTCSep 15 · 01:32 UTC
EPS95%Sep 14 · 00:00 UTCSep 14 · 15:01 UTCSep 14 · 15:01 UTC
HRES98%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 19:23 UTCSep 14 · 19:23 UTC
ICON89%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 23:13 UTCSep 14 · 23:13 UTC
WN282%Sep 14 · 18:00 UTCSep 15 · 05:07 UTCSep 15 · 05:07 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICONAIFS250.6885517.217.79+7.79 / -7.79
EPSWN2310.8849527.433.57+3.57 / -3.57

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 83°F · Sep 20 · 07:13 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 17 · 09:08 UTC83°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDEN:20260916:D1