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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDEN · High ≥ 78°F

Denver, CO · 20260917 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 14 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 17 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 18 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 25 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDEN ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
EPS
86%
HRES
83%
AIFS
60%
ICON
55%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS60%Sep 13 · 18:00 UTCSep 14 · 01:27 UTCSep 14 · 01:27 UTC
EPS86%Sep 13 · 00:00 UTCSep 13 · 14:58 UTCSep 13 · 14:58 UTC
HRES83%Sep 13 · 12:00 UTCSep 13 · 19:34 UTCSep 13 · 19:34 UTC
ICON55%Sep 13 · 00:00 UTCSep 13 · 07:32 UTCSep 13 · 07:32 UTC
WN294%Sep 13 · 18:00 UTCSep 14 · 05:02 UTCSep 14 · 05:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSICON210.7078514.866.14+6.14 / -6.14
WN2HRES370.8819532.634.37+4.37 / -4.37

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 84°F · Sep 21 · 07:00 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 18 · 09:50 UTC84°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDEN:20260917:D3