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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDEN · High ≥ 76°F

Denver, CO · 20260923 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 20 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 23 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 24 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 01 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDEN ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
80%
HRES
78%
AIFS
67%
ICON
51%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS67%Sep 19 · 18:00 UTCSep 20 · 01:31 UTCSep 20 · 01:31 UTC
EPS80%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 15:13 UTCSep 19 · 15:13 UTC
HRES78%Sep 19 · 12:00 UTCSep 19 · 19:36 UTCSep 19 · 19:36 UTC
ICON51%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 04:22 UTCSep 20 · 04:22 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

IFS HRES / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 72°F · Sep 27 · 07:23 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 24 · 09:39 UTC72°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDEN:20260923:D3