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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDEN · High ≥ 75°F

Denver, CO · 20260926 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 21 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 26 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 27 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 04 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDEN ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
HRES
94%
EPS
89%
ICON
57%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS97%Sep 20 · 18:00 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTC
EPS89%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 15:14 UTCSep 20 · 15:14 UTC
HRES94%Sep 20 · 12:00 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTC
ICON57%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
HRESEPS250.9125522.812.19+2.19 / -2.19

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 81°F · Sep 30 · 07:43 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 27 · 09:29 UTC81°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDEN:20260926:D5