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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDEN · High ≥ 73°F

Denver, CO · 20260930 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 25 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 30 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 01 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 08 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDEN ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
75%
HRES
70%
WN2
63%
EPS
31%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS3%Sep 24 · 18:00 UTCSep 25 · 01:30 UTCSep 25 · 01:30 UTC
EPS31%Sep 24 · 00:00 UTCSep 24 · 15:06 UTCSep 24 · 15:06 UTC
HRES70%Sep 24 · 12:00 UTCSep 24 · 22:23 UTCSep 24 · 22:23 UTC
ICON75%Sep 25 · 00:00 UTCSep 25 · 04:22 UTCSep 25 · 04:22 UTC
WN263%Sep 24 · 18:00 UTCSep 25 · 04:53 UTCSep 25 · 04:53 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICONEPS630.5284033.2929.71-33.29 / +33.29
HRESWN2250.6650516.638.37-16.63 / +16.63

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 64°F · Oct 04 · 07:38 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 01 · 10:03 UTC64°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDEN:20260930:D5