SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDEN · High ≥ 72°F

Denver, CO · 20261001 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 26 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 01 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 02 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 09 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDEN ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

45%

44%

40%

10%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	40%	Sep 25 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 26 · 01:25 UTC	Sep 26 · 01:25 UTC
EPS	44%	Sep 25 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 15:17 UTC	Sep 25 · 15:17 UTC
HRES	10%	Sep 25 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 19:27 UTC	Sep 25 · 19:27 UTC
ICON	45%	Sep 26 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 26 · 04:33 UTC	Sep 26 · 04:33 UTC
WN2	79%	Sep 25 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 26 · 05:04 UTC	Sep 26 · 05:04 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2	AIFS	56	0.59490	33.31	22.69	-33.31 / +33.31
EPS	HRES	45	0.27110	12.20	32.80	-12.20 / +12.20

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 70°F · Oct 05 · 07:57 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 02 · 09:11 UTC	70°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDEN:20261001:D5