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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDFW · High ≥ 88°F

Dallas, TX · 20260922 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 21 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 22 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 23 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 30 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
97%
ICON
92%
HRES
91%
AIFS
90%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS90%Sep 20 · 18:00 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTC
EPS97%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 15:14 UTCSep 20 · 15:14 UTC
HRES91%Sep 20 · 12:00 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTC
ICON92%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / IFS HRES: Gap below 4 percentage points.

ICON / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 96°F · Sep 26 · 06:22 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 23 · 09:45 UTC96°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20260922:D1