KDFW · High ≥ 88°F
Dallas, TX · 20260922 · Settled
Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.
The contract clock
| MILESTONE | UTC |
|---|---|
| Published | Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC |
| Forecast deadline | Sep 17 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day starts | Sep 22 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day ends | Sep 23 · 06:00 UTC |
| Unresolved contract voids | Sep 30 · 06:00 UTC |
1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.
Scheduled opponents
AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble
Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.
Locked forecasts
| MODEL | PROBABILITY | INITIALIZED UTC | RECEIVED UTC | CAPTURED UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | 94% | Sep 16 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 17 · 01:24 UTC | Sep 17 · 01:24 UTC |
| EPS | 87% | Sep 16 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 16 · 15:06 UTC | Sep 16 · 15:06 UTC |
| HRES | 97% | Sep 16 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 16 · 23:05 UTC | Sep 16 · 23:05 UTC |
| ICON | 98% | Sep 17 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 17 · 04:31 UTC | Sep 17 · 04:31 UTC |
| WN2 | 95% | Sep 16 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 17 · 05:02 UTC | Sep 17 · 05:02 UTC |
Positions & reserved credits
| YES MODEL | NO MODEL | QUANTITY | YES PRICE | YES RESERVED AT ENTRY | NO RESERVED AT ENTRY | YES / NO REALIZED P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | EPS | 25 | 0.90495 | 22.62 | 2.38 | +2.38 / -2.38 |
IFS HRES / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.
The observation record
Finalized contract result: YES · 96°F · Sep 26 · 06:22 UTC
| FIRST SEEN UTC | HIGH | SOURCE | OBSERVATION HOUR | TREATMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 · 09:45 UTC | 96°F | RCC-ACIS StnData | 24 | Provisional reading |
Inspect the evidence
Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.
Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20260922:D5