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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDFW · High ≥ 87°F

Dallas, TX · 20260925 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 20 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 25 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 26 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 03 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
ICON
73%
HRES
73%
AIFS
69%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS69%Sep 19 · 18:00 UTCSep 20 · 01:31 UTCSep 20 · 01:31 UTC
EPS>99%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 14:58 UTCSep 19 · 14:58 UTC
HRES73%Sep 19 · 12:00 UTCSep 19 · 19:36 UTCSep 19 · 19:36 UTC
ICON73%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 04:22 UTCSep 20 · 04:22 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSHRES290.8619025.004.00+4.00 / -4.00

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 92°F · Sep 29 · 06:24 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 26 · 09:29 UTC92°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20260925:D5