SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDFW · High ≥ 86°F

Dallas, TX · 20260928 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 25 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 28 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Sep 29 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 06 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

96%

92%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	92%	Sep 24 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 01:30 UTC	Sep 25 · 01:30 UTC
EPS	>99%	Sep 24 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 15:06 UTC	Sep 24 · 15:06 UTC
HRES	96%	Sep 24 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 22:23 UTC	Sep 24 · 22:23 UTC
ICON	>99%	Sep 25 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:22 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:22 UTC
WN2	98%	Sep 24 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:53 UTC	Sep 25 · 04:53 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICON	AIFS	14	0.95955	13.43	0.57	+0.57 / -0.57

IFS Ensemble / WeatherNext 2: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 93°F · Oct 02 · 06:03 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Sep 29 · 09:32 UTC	93°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20260928:D3