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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDFW · High ≥ 84°F

Dallas, TX · 20261003 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 02 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 03 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 04 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 11 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
63%
WN2
8%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS6%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 01:29 UTCOct 02 · 01:29 UTC
EPS63%Oct 01 · 00:00 UTCOct 01 · 23:07 UTCOct 01 · 23:07 UTC
HRES4%Oct 01 · 12:00 UTCOct 01 · 19:26 UTCOct 01 · 19:26 UTC
WN28%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

IFS Ensemble / ICON: Missing eligible forecast.

WeatherNext 2 / IFS HRES: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 74°F · Oct 07 · 06:30 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 04 · 09:45 UTC74°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20261003:D1