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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDFW · High ≥ 83°F

Dallas, TX · 20261007 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 04 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 07 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 08 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 15 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
WN2
77%
AIFS
71%
ICON
53%
HRES
29%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS71%Oct 03 · 18:00 UTCOct 04 · 01:36 UTCOct 04 · 01:36 UTC
EPS78%Oct 03 · 00:00 UTCOct 03 · 15:07 UTCOct 03 · 15:07 UTC
HRES29%Oct 03 · 12:00 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTC
ICON53%Oct 03 · 12:00 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTC
WN277%Oct 03 · 18:00 UTCOct 04 · 05:05 UTCOct 04 · 05:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2AIFS250.7376018.446.56+6.56 / -6.56
EPSHRES620.5374033.3228.68+28.68 / -28.68

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 88°F · Oct 11 · 06:09 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 08 · 09:52 UTC88°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20261007:D3