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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KDFW · High ≥ 83°F

Dallas, TX · 20261007 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 02 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 07 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 08 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 15 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KDFW ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
86%
WN2
77%
AIFS
61%
HRES
55%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS61%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 01:29 UTCOct 02 · 01:29 UTC
EPS86%Oct 01 · 00:00 UTCOct 01 · 14:58 UTCOct 01 · 14:58 UTC
HRES55%Oct 01 · 12:00 UTCOct 01 · 23:07 UTCOct 01 · 23:07 UTC
WN277%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSAIFS110.736758.102.90+2.90 / -2.90

IFS HRES / ICON: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 88°F · Oct 11 · 06:09 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 08 · 09:52 UTC88°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KDFW:20261007:D5