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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 91°F

Houston, TX · 20260910 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 09 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 10 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 11 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 18 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
75%
WN2
73%
EPS
66%
ICON
65%
HRES
60%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS75%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 01:30 UTCSep 09 · 01:30 UTC
EPS66%Sep 08 · 00:00 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTC
HRES60%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTC
ICON65%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTC
WN273%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 05:04 UTCSep 09 · 05:04 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES490.6770033.1715.83-33.17 / +33.17
WN2ICON250.6902517.267.74-17.26 / +17.26

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 90°F · Sep 14 · 06:04 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 11 · 09:25 UTC90°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260910:D1