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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 90°F

Houston, TX · 20260914 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 09 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 14 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 15 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 22 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
94%
WN2
87%
AIFS
83%
HRES
83%
EPS
82%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS83%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 01:30 UTCSep 09 · 01:36 UTC
EPS82%Sep 08 · 00:00 UTCSep 08 · 15:49 UTCSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
HRES83%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTCSep 08 · 19:35 UTC
ICON94%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTCSep 08 · 19:35 UTC
WN287%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 05:19 UTCSep 09 · 05:21 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICONAIFS370.8855032.764.24+4.24 / -4.24
WN2EPS250.8490521.233.77+3.77 / -3.77

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 98°F · Sep 18 · 06:45 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 15 · 09:45 UTC98°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260914:D5