SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 90°F

Houston, TX · 20260917 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 12 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 17 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Sep 18 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Sep 25 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

82%

78%

78%

77%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	82%	Sep 11 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 12 · 01:47 UTC	Sep 12 · 01:47 UTC
EPS	77%	Sep 11 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 11 · 15:02 UTC	Sep 11 · 15:16 UTC
HRES	78%	Sep 11 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 11 · 19:39 UTC	Sep 11 · 19:46 UTC
ICON	86%	Sep 11 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 11 · 16:34 UTC	Sep 11 · 16:46 UTC
WN2	78%	Sep 11 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 12 · 05:22 UTC	Sep 12 · 05:33 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICON	EPS	25	0.81400	20.35	4.65	+4.65 / -4.65

WeatherNext 2 / IFS HRES: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 90°F · Sep 21 · 07:00 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Sep 18 · 09:50 UTC	90°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260917:D5