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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 90°F

Houston, TX · 20260918 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 15 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 18 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 19 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 26 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
94%
EPS
92%
AIFS
90%
WN2
89%
HRES
67%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS90%Sep 14 · 18:00 UTCSep 15 · 01:47 UTCSep 15 · 02:00 UTC
EPS92%Sep 14 · 00:00 UTCSep 14 · 15:17 UTCSep 14 · 15:28 UTC
HRES67%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 19:54 UTCSep 14 · 19:59 UTC
ICON94%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 19:54 UTCSep 14 · 19:59 UTC
WN289%Sep 14 · 18:00 UTCSep 15 · 05:38 UTCSep 15 · 05:45 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES40.781503.130.87+0.87 / -0.87
ICONWN270.913506.390.61+0.61 / -0.61

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 94°F · Sep 22 · 06:49 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 19 · 09:32 UTC94°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260918:D3