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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 90°F

Houston, TX · 20260918 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 13 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 18 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 19 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 26 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
90%
ICON
88%
AIFS
83%
WN2
76%
HRES
66%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS83%Sep 12 · 18:00 UTCSep 13 · 01:37 UTCSep 13 · 01:51 UTC
EPS90%Sep 12 · 00:00 UTCSep 12 · 15:06 UTCSep 12 · 15:20 UTC
HRES66%Sep 12 · 12:00 UTCSep 12 · 22:47 UTCSep 12 · 22:51 UTC
ICON88%Sep 12 · 12:00 UTCSep 12 · 19:43 UTCSep 12 · 19:50 UTC
WN276%Sep 12 · 12:00 UTCSep 12 · 23:33 UTCSep 12 · 23:36 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSWN2240.7960019.104.90+4.90 / -4.90
EPSHRES180.7810014.063.94+3.94 / -3.94

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 94°F · Sep 22 · 06:49 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 19 · 09:32 UTC94°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260918:D5