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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 89°F

Houston, TX · 20260922 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 21 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 22 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 23 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 30 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
AIFS
98%
ICON
96%
HRES
95%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS98%Sep 20 · 18:00 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTC
EPS>99%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 13:56 UTCSep 20 · 13:56 UTC
HRES95%Sep 20 · 12:00 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTC
ICON96%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSHRES190.9752518.530.47+0.47 / -0.47

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 99°F · Sep 26 · 06:22 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 23 · 09:45 UTC99°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260922:D1