SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 89°F

Houston, TX · 20260923 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 18 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 23 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Sep 24 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 01 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

95%

93%

93%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	96%	Sep 17 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 18 · 01:21 UTC	Sep 18 · 01:21 UTC
EPS	>99%	Sep 17 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 17 · 10:56 UTC	Sep 17 · 10:56 UTC
HRES	93%	Sep 17 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 17 · 22:31 UTC	Sep 17 · 22:31 UTC
ICON	95%	Sep 18 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 18 · 04:26 UTC	Sep 18 · 04:26 UTC
WN2	93%	Sep 17 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 17 · 23:02 UTC	Sep 17 · 23:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPS	HRES	23	0.96275	22.14	0.86	+0.86 / -0.86

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 99°F · Sep 27 · 06:21 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Sep 24 · 09:39 UTC	99°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260923:D5