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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 88°F

Houston, TX · 20260924 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 19 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 24 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 25 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 02 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
87%
AIFS
87%
ICON
85%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS87%Sep 18 · 18:00 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTC
EPS>99%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTC
HRES87%Sep 18 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTC
ICON85%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.

IFS Ensemble / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 97°F · Sep 28 · 06:20 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 25 · 09:34 UTC97°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260924:D5