SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 87°F

Houston, TX · 20260929 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 24 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 29 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Sep 30 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 07 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

97%

96%

88%

82%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	97%	Sep 23 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 01:35 UTC	Sep 24 · 01:35 UTC
EPS	97%	Sep 23 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 23 · 15:11 UTC	Sep 23 · 15:12 UTC
HRES	88%	Sep 23 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 23 · 19:21 UTC	Sep 23 · 19:21 UTC
ICON	82%	Sep 24 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 04:27 UTC	Sep 24 · 04:27 UTC
WN2	96%	Sep 23 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 24 · 04:59 UTC	Sep 24 · 04:59 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFS	ICON	16	0.89205	14.27	1.73	+1.73 / -1.73

IFS Ensemble / WeatherNext 2: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 94°F · Oct 03 · 06:16 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Sep 30 · 09:51 UTC	94°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20260929:D5