KIAH · High ≥ 87°F
Houston, TX · 20261001 · Settled
Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.
The contract clock
| MILESTONE | UTC |
|---|---|
| Published | Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC |
| Forecast deadline | Sep 28 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day starts | Oct 01 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day ends | Oct 02 · 06:00 UTC |
| Unresolved contract voids | Oct 09 · 06:00 UTC |
1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.
Scheduled opponents
AIFS Single versus ICON
IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2
Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.
Locked forecasts
| MODEL | PROBABILITY | INITIALIZED UTC | RECEIVED UTC | CAPTURED UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | 96% | Sep 27 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 28 · 01:22 UTC | Sep 28 · 01:22 UTC |
| EPS | 99% | Sep 27 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 27 · 11:33 UTC | Sep 27 · 11:37 UTC |
| HRES | 90% | Sep 27 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 27 · 19:23 UTC | Sep 27 · 19:23 UTC |
| ICON | 93% | Sep 28 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 28 · 04:30 UTC | Sep 28 · 04:30 UTC |
| WN2 | 97% | Sep 27 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 28 · 05:02 UTC | Sep 28 · 05:02 UTC |
Positions & reserved credits
| YES MODEL | NO MODEL | QUANTITY | YES PRICE | YES RESERVED AT ENTRY | NO RESERVED AT ENTRY | YES / NO REALIZED P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions have been opened for this contest. | ||||||
AIFS Single / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.
IFS Ensemble / WeatherNext 2: Gap below 4 percentage points.
The observation record
Finalized contract result: YES · 90°F · Oct 05 · 06:55 UTC
| FIRST SEEN UTC | HIGH | SOURCE | OBSERVATION HOUR | TREATMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 · 09:11 UTC | 90°F | RCC-ACIS StnData | 24 | Provisional reading |
Inspect the evidence
Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.
Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20261001:D3