SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KIAH · High ≥ 86°F

Houston, TX · 20261005 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Oct 04 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 05 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 06 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 13 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KIAH ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

76%

72%

72%

58%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	76%	Oct 03 · 18:00 UTC	Oct 04 · 02:09 UTC	Oct 04 · 02:12 UTC
EPS	81%	Oct 03 · 00:00 UTC	Oct 03 · 15:32 UTC	Oct 03 · 15:40 UTC
HRES	72%	Oct 03 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 03 · 20:02 UTC	Oct 03 · 20:11 UTC
ICON	58%	Oct 03 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 03 · 20:02 UTC	Oct 03 · 20:11 UTC
WN2	72%	Oct 03 · 18:00 UTC	Oct 04 · 05:05 UTC	Oct 04 · 05:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2	ICON	50	0.64945	32.47	17.53	+17.53 / -17.53

AIFS Single / IFS HRES: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 89°F · Oct 09 · 06:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 06 · 09:09 UTC	89°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KIAH:20261005:D1