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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KLGA · High ≥ 77°F

New York, NY · 20260916 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 11 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 16 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 17 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 24 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KLGA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
ICON
91%
WN2
84%
AIFS
77%
EPS
69%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS77%Sep 10 · 18:00 UTCSep 11 · 01:28 UTCSep 11 · 01:28 UTC
EPS69%Sep 10 · 00:00 UTCSep 11 · 01:13 UTCSep 11 · 01:13 UTC
HRES95%Sep 10 · 12:00 UTCSep 10 · 19:21 UTCSep 10 · 19:21 UTC
ICON91%Sep 11 · 00:00 UTCSep 11 · 04:32 UTCSep 11 · 04:32 UTC
WN284%Sep 10 · 12:00 UTCSep 10 · 22:55 UTCSep 10 · 22:55 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICONAIFS390.8363532.626.38+6.38 / -6.38
WN2EPS430.7672532.9910.01+10.01 / -10.01

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 79°F · Sep 20 · 05:09 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 17 · 09:08 UTC79°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KLGA:20260916:D5