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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KLGA · High ≥ 71°F

New York, NY · 20261001 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 30 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 01 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 02 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 09 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KLGA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
97%
HRES
85%
EPS
84%
ICON
50%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS97%Sep 29 · 18:00 UTCSep 30 · 01:32 UTCSep 30 · 01:32 UTC
EPS84%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 15:03 UTCSep 29 · 15:03 UTC
HRES85%Sep 29 · 12:00 UTCSep 29 · 19:24 UTCSep 29 · 19:24 UTC
ICON50%Sep 30 · 00:00 UTCSep 30 · 04:26 UTCSep 30 · 04:26 UTC
WN2>99%Sep 29 · 18:00 UTCSep 30 · 04:58 UTCSep 30 · 04:58 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSEPS110.905459.961.04+1.04 / -1.04
HRESICON160.6761510.825.18+5.18 / -5.18

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 78°F · Oct 05 · 05:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 02 · 09:11 UTC78°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KLGA:20261001:D1