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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KLGA · High ≥ 71°F

New York, NY · 20261003 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 02 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 03 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 11 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KLGA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
91%
AIFS
74%
HRES
69%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS74%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 01:44 UTCOct 02 · 01:50 UTC
EPS>99%Oct 01 · 00:00 UTCOct 01 · 23:22 UTCOct 01 · 23:34 UTC
HRES69%Oct 01 · 12:00 UTCOct 01 · 19:42 UTCOct 01 · 19:49 UTC
WN291%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2HRES150.7988011.983.02+3.02 / -3.02

IFS Ensemble / ICON: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 72°F · Oct 07 · 05:26 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 04 · 09:45 UTC72°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KLGA:20261003:D1