KLGA · High ≥ 71°F
New York, NY · 20261004 · Settled
Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.
The contract clock
| MILESTONE | UTC |
|---|---|
| Published | Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC |
| Forecast deadline | Oct 01 · 05:00 UTC |
| Observed day starts | Oct 04 · 05:00 UTC |
| Observed day ends | Oct 05 · 05:00 UTC |
| Unresolved contract voids | Oct 12 · 05:00 UTC |
1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KLGA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.
Scheduled opponents
AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble
Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.
Locked forecasts
| MODEL | PROBABILITY | INITIALIZED UTC | RECEIVED UTC | CAPTURED UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | 30% | Sep 30 · 18:00 UTC | Oct 01 · 01:35 UTC | Oct 01 · 01:35 UTC |
| EPS | 34% | Sep 30 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 30 · 15:02 UTC | Sep 30 · 15:02 UTC |
| HRES | 13% | Sep 30 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 30 · 19:32 UTC | Sep 30 · 19:32 UTC |
| ICON | 18% | Sep 30 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 30 · 16:21 UTC | Sep 30 · 16:21 UTC |
| WN2 | 52% | Sep 30 · 18:00 UTC | Oct 01 · 04:59 UTC | Oct 01 · 04:59 UTC |
Positions & reserved credits
| YES MODEL | NO MODEL | QUANTITY | YES PRICE | YES RESERVED AT ENTRY | NO RESERVED AT ENTRY | YES / NO REALIZED P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICON | HRES | 25 | 0.15395 | 3.85 | 21.15 | -3.85 / +3.85 |
AIFS Single / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.
The observation record
Finalized contract result: NO · 64°F · Oct 08 · 05:41 UTC
| FIRST SEEN UTC | HIGH | SOURCE | OBSERVATION HOUR | TREATMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05 · 10:03 UTC | 64°F | RCC-ACIS StnData | 24 | Provisional reading |
Inspect the evidence
Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.
Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KLGA:20261004:D3