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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KLGA · High ≥ 70°F

New York, NY · 20261005 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 02 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 05 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 06 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 13 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KLGA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
68%
EPS
53%
HRES
49%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS68%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 01:28 UTCOct 02 · 01:29 UTC
EPS53%Oct 01 · 00:00 UTCOct 01 · 11:01 UTCOct 01 · 11:01 UTC
HRES49%Oct 01 · 12:00 UTCOct 01 · 19:26 UTCOct 01 · 19:26 UTC
WN292%Oct 01 · 18:00 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTCOct 02 · 04:54 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES270.5875015.8611.14+11.14 / -11.14

ICON / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 70°F · Oct 09 · 05:49 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 06 · 09:09 UTC70°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KLGA:20261005:D3