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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260910 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 09 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 10 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 11 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 18 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
WN2
66%
AIFS
55%
HRES
46%
ICON
21%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS55%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 01:30 UTCSep 09 · 01:30 UTC
EPS91%Sep 08 · 00:00 UTCSep 08 · 15:49 UTCSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
HRES46%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTCSep 08 · 19:22 UTC
ICON21%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTCSep 09 · 03:01 UTC
WN266%Sep 08 · 12:00 UTCSep 08 · 22:57 UTCSep 08 · 22:57 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2AIFS500.6010530.0519.95+19.95 / -19.95
EPSHRES480.6843532.8515.15+15.15 / -15.15

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 91°F · Sep 14 · 05:02 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 11 · 09:25 UTC91°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260910:D1