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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260913 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 12 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 13 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 14 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 21 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
ICON
62%
AIFS
58%
WN2
56%
HRES
54%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS58%Sep 11 · 18:00 UTCSep 12 · 01:32 UTCSep 12 · 01:32 UTC
EPS87%Sep 11 · 00:00 UTCSep 11 · 14:01 UTCSep 11 · 14:01 UTC
HRES54%Sep 11 · 12:00 UTCSep 11 · 19:23 UTCSep 11 · 19:23 UTC
ICON62%Sep 11 · 12:00 UTCSep 11 · 16:34 UTCSep 11 · 16:34 UTC
WN256%Sep 11 · 12:00 UTCSep 11 · 22:59 UTCSep 11 · 22:59 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES250.5609014.0210.98+10.98 / -10.98
ICONWN2250.5898514.7510.25+10.25 / -10.25

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 92°F · Sep 17 · 05:02 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 14 · 09:08 UTC92°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260913:D1