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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260916 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 15 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 16 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 17 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 24 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
90%
WN2
69%
AIFS
58%
HRES
48%
ICON
36%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS58%Sep 14 · 18:00 UTCSep 15 · 01:32 UTCSep 15 · 01:32 UTC
EPS90%Sep 14 · 00:00 UTCSep 15 · 02:02 UTCSep 15 · 02:02 UTC
HRES48%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 19:23 UTCSep 14 · 19:23 UTC
ICON36%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 23:13 UTCSep 14 · 23:13 UTC
WN269%Sep 14 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 22:58 UTCSep 14 · 22:58 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON40.470701.882.12+2.12 / -2.12
EPSWN250.793103.971.03+1.03 / -1.03

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 92°F · Sep 20 · 05:09 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 17 · 09:08 UTC92°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260916:D1