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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260918 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 17 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 18 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 19 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 26 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
HRES
48%
WN2
48%
AIFS
42%
ICON
38%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS42%Sep 16 · 18:00 UTCSep 17 · 01:24 UTCSep 17 · 01:26 UTC
EPS78%Sep 16 · 00:00 UTCSep 16 · 15:37 UTCSep 16 · 15:40 UTC
HRES48%Sep 16 · 12:00 UTCSep 16 · 23:05 UTCSep 16 · 23:11 UTC
ICON38%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 17 · 04:31 UTCSep 17 · 04:31 UTC
WN248%Sep 16 · 12:00 UTCSep 16 · 23:05 UTCSep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
HRESAIFS250.4530011.3213.68+13.68 / -13.68
WN2ICON220.427659.4112.59+12.59 / -12.59

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 90°F · Sep 22 · 05:46 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 19 · 09:32 UTC90°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260918:D1